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Revision of the programme "Transport and fate of contaminants in the northern seas".
1. Background
3. Priorities
The programme board for the transport and effect programme1 in it's meeting the 26.5.98 asked for a revision of the transport programme, "Transport and fate of contaminants in the northern seas" The first reason is that more research has been carried out in the last two years since the proposal for the programme was written. Some of the work proposed in different tasks of the programme may therefore have been fulfilled - partly or completely. By updating the tasks according to what has been done, it may be possible to direct the research in the programme towards the second phase. The second reason is that the transport programme has not been funded as was anticipated. In the proposal for the programme (29.08.96), and later in the application to the Norwegian ministries (30.5.97), the proposed sum was 19 mill. NOK. The programme received a total sum of 6 mill. NOK - which is less than a third. This reduced funding has made it necessary to prioritise specific tasks. However it has been assumed that the participating institutions will contribute to the budget with their own funds, and work to obtain external funding for projects included in or related to the programme. NP (The Norwegian Polar Institute) has collaborated with other institutions and thereby contributed to obtain funds for the following projects: * Frazil ice formation and incorporation of sediments into sea-ice in the Kara Sea. (UiB - Smedsrud/Foldvik) * Sediment entrancement into sea ice via suspended ice crystals NTNU - Eidsvik * A laboratory simulation of the ocean circulation in the Eastern Barents and Kara Seas. SINTEF - McClimans * Transport of river water and sea ice on the Kara Sea Continental Shelf (ROFI). NP (Nøst) - AARI - UiB. These projects, and work done by AMAP, Norwegian, German, Russian and American institutions are taken into consideration in the update of the tasks following; and will also reduce the mismatch between the ambitions of the programme and its finances. This revision will include a summary of which tasks from the original proposal that have been completed (section 2), and a priority list for the remaining (groups of) tasks with respect to the reduced funding (section 3). The programme board has principally agreed on a division of the work in three sections:
Each of these has a corresponding set of tasks, which can be found in the proposal for the programme. The work will follow the original proposal, updated for relevant work carried out over the last few years. It is suggested that all tasks from 1 to 7 should be included in the first work phase, as far as the budget allows. This includes task 2, 3.5, 4 and 5.3 last bold point. To facilitate the work under Task 4, 5 and 7 the use of specific contaminants as tracers is important. This specific question will therefore be answered in this section. Task 2; Select key contaminants The original idea of the programme was to select a few contaminants for common use in all the activities of both the transport and effect programmes. The work still has to be done. What is new, however, since the programme was written, is that AMAP has concluded its first phase with a final report (in print). In the second phase recently started, an extended list of contaminants has been completed which has to be taken into consideration. Results from the Karex programme should also be considered. Task 3.5 and 5.3, last bold point; Synthesis and Analysis of Existing Data - Contaminants and sediment data and chemical behaviour of contaminants in sea ice. Generally the work in 3.5 should be seen in connection with the need of input data to numerical modelling calculations of scenarios, stressing determination of fluxes. Important work relevant for this section has been conducted under AMAP. Close contact should be kept with AMAP and key institutes involved in the AMAP process. 3.5.1: The data from PROMARE are probably irrelevant since they concern free water masses. 3.5.2: Hydromet (Russia) have series of data concerning pollution in snow, ice and water. These data are published in an atlas by the Office of Naval Research (USA), but are not quality assured. Very limited information still exists on the pollution levels in ice. The work should therefore include the design of a programme for sampling of ice cores in 1999 and analyses of these and existing cores to determine levels of pollution and the use of pollutants as tracers. 3.5.3: Much work has been done, but the material should be updated in connection with needs for numerical modelling Task 4; Description of scenarios The scenarios and their consequences are important for the choice of model tools in task 5 and 7. Important work has been done on scenarios by the US Nuclear Waste Programme. This work has to be taken into consideration in Task 4 together with the use of tracers described under Task 3. Close contact should be made with NRPA when working with scenarios on radionuclides. Less work has been done on scenarios on POP's and heavy metals. There is a growing interest in the dangers posed by petroleum industry activities and transport by ships. This includes the following tasks: 3.1, 3.2, 3.4, 5.1, 7.1 and 7.2 Task 3.1; EKASC Validation and Documentation The EKASC-project has been completed. Further work will not be necessary before small scale modelling of the Barents and Kara Seas has been done. Task 3.2; Synthesis and Analysis of Existing Data - Oceanographic data The synthesising is well under way by ACSYS. At the same time this is key input data of fundamental importance for the modelling work and studies of oceanographic processes which need to be digitised. It is suggested that this work is carried out by ACSYS under their BarKode programme, except for 3.2.3, tide atlas, which is not included in this work. Task 3.2; Synthesis and Analysis of Existing Data - Meteorological data This work should focus on the needs of the modellers and include local data sets on climate including precipitation from AARI. The suggested time resolution on the data sets from the ECMWF files should be considered especially for wind and pressure, for which monthly mean values may be too coarse. Task 5.1; Identification and Evaluation of Model Tools - Ocean circulation and transport models In the evaluation of current modelling activities, work by the Germans and US Nuclear Waste Programme should be evaluated. Existing models used by DNM (coupled ice-ocean model), IMR, NRPA (updated box model) and the Kiel group (ice) are likely to be used. An ad hoc working group under the leadership of Roger Colony will be set up to coordinate the work on ocean (Task 5.1) and sea-ice (Task 5.2) models. Working group meetings will be arranged. It is important that different kinds of models are compared with one another. This is especially important in the use of physical models as input for the box model of NRPA. Task 7. Process and Model Studies Coastal ocean dynamics are covered by the ROFI-programme (run by NP, AARI and UiB). This programme together with the modelling performed by DNMI, SINTEF and an international group on regional circulation should be evaluated and considered for potential co-operation. Close contact has to be made with NRPA to ensure that their request for updating the box model (river runoff, box structure, ice and sediment-water interaction) is seen in connection with the work on data and results from calculations from physical models in the programme. This includes the following tasks: 3.3, 5.2, 5.3, 7.3 and 7.4 Task 3.3; Synthesis and Analysis of Existing Data - Sea Ice data This work is well under way, but much remains, e.g. digitising the Russian data. Task 5.2; Identification and Evaluation of Model Tools - Sea-ice models The Kiel-group model as well as synthesis for back trajectory calculation will be evaluated. This is also the case for the work by DNMI with the coupled ocean-ice model (see task 5.1). The model work on ice and ocean dynamics is closely related and will be co-ordinated by Roger Colony. The frazil ice studies by NTNU and UiB should be included in the programme. Task 5.3; Identification and Evaluation of Model Tools - Sediment/ice models Not much has been done, but some work has been started at UiB among others. Stephany Pfirman at UNY will be asked to head a group working with sediment ice models. Task 7.3 and 7.4; Process and Model Studies - Sediment and Sea-ice No activities have been started since the programme was written. An analysis of gaps of knowledge (task 6) will be performed during 1999. This analysis will provide the basis for phase II. This will probably include remaining activities of task 7, but most importantly: field work and laboratory studies (task 8). The programme has received money from the Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which specified certain criteria and conditions to the participating institutes. In table 1, the combination of scientific priorities and institutional priorities have been combined as a framework for the allocation of money to concrete activities and institutions. The programme board has decided to give one institution the responsibility of coordinating the work within each of the four themes Pollution, Oceanography, Ice and Improvement of the box model. These four institutions are not supposed to do all the work by themselves, but to collaborate with other Norwegian and Russian institutions.
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