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Transport and fate of contaminants in the northern seas. Proposal for a programme to improve the knowledge basis for future environmental monitoring and assessment. The programme proposal is developed for the Norwegian Ministry of Environment, Oslo, Sept. 1996 by a working group composed of: Norwegian Polar Institute (NP); Institute of Marine Research (IMR); Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI); Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority (NRPA); Norwegian Pollution Control Authority (SFT) Comment: This programme proposal has been approved by the Ministry of the Environment and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as the scientific basis for the ongoing research. However, the funding has so far not been adequate to cover all tasks described here.
1. Background
4. Schedule 5. Budget
The Ministry of Environment, in a letter of 16.10.95 to the Norwegian Polar Institute (NP), has instructed NP to be responsible for establishing and heading a working group to develop a programme proposal on the transport and fate of contaminants in the Barents-and adjacent seas. The working group is be composed of NP, Norwegian Pollution Control Authority (SFT), Institute of Marine Research (IMR), Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority (NRPA), Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI). The following representatives have been appointed: Gunnar Futsæter, NP, (head) Stig Falk Petersen, NP, (scientific secretary) Gabriel Kielland, SFT, Mikhail Iosjpe, NRPA, Bjørn Ådlandsvik, IMR, Eivind Martinsen, DNMI. In addition, the following have participated in several of the working group meetings and have given significant contributions to the development of the programme proposal: Paul Budgell (NP), Ole Anders Nøst (NP), Per Strand (NRPA), Lars Petter Røed (DNMI), Harald Loeng (HI) and Britt Salbu (Agricultural University of Norway (NLH)).The programme was edited by Dr. Paul Budgell and Dr. philos Stig Falk-Petersen. The proposal was reviewed by scientists from the international scientific community to ensure the quality of the scientific content and to co-ordinate this programme with other programmes: Roger Colony (Director of the Arctic Climate System Study, ACSYS, project office, Oslo, Norway), Aleksander Makshtas, Sergey Priamikov (Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI), Russia). The purpose of the programme is to contribute to the total basis of knowledge needed for the authorities (both environmental-, fisheries- and health authorities) in order to: i) assess the environmental status and threats from pollution sources ; ii) assess the short and long term impacts (consequences) of the contaminant transport on the environment (and man); iii) develop and establish an effective long term monitoring and assessment programme. (The programme will provide part of the basis for developing a future monitoring programme and elements of an operative monitoring programme ("Tools for predicting impacts/analysing collected data")); iv) improve the strategy for determining appropriate actions in case of a catastrophic release of contaminants (e.g. contingency actions, monitoring actions). Environmental status and impact assessments are necessary as a basis for decisions on actions to counteract damage to the environment. Potential actions for the northern seas will be both very costly and probably controversal, and will necessarily demand international collaboration since most of the contaminants are long range transported. This implies stringent requirements for comprehensive and thorough documentation, which most likely will increase in the future, as a basis for proposed actions. It is important to give confidence to the policy makers that the knowledge basis is accurate and reliable. An improved documentation of the contaminant pathways is essential to establish a reliable and satisfactory knowledge basis for decision-makers. In this respect, co-operation with Russian scientists will be important to establish a common knowledge basis. The programme will be an activity under the bilateral Norwegian-Russian Environmental Agreement and co-operation will be discussed in the Joint Expert Group on Radioactive Contamination of the Northern Areas and in the Joint Expert Group on the Marine Environment. The oceanographic investigations and ice studies will be based on the ongoing formal cooperation between AARI and NP, which has been in operation since the mid-eighties. The programme will give a significant input to phase II of AMAP and will be a part of the Norwegian and Russian National Action Plans to follow up AMAP. The programme will address the physical and chemical basis of knowledge for executing the tasks listed above (purpose of the programme). Another programme will address the impact of contaminants on biota and man and the transport of contaminants within the foodchains ("Impacts of and transport of contaminants in marine foodchains in northern seas"/"Effekter og transport av miljøgifter i marine næringskjeder i nordlige havområder"). Oslo 29.08 1996 Gunnar Futsæter Norwegian Polar Institute The shelf of the Barents-Kara Region from Northern Norway to the Yamal Peninsula and the coastal area of north-west Russia is one of the last pristine European wildlife refuges for both terrestrial and marine biota, and harbours species populations of importance on a global scale, particularly of mammals and birds. This area is also one of the richest regions in the world in natural resources such as fish, marine mammals, petroleum hydrocarbons, metals, minerals and timber. It is anticipated that, within the next decade, this area will attract major investments from, e.g. European petroleum-, mining- and timber industries and thus be subjected to large scale development. The Barents Sea and its adjacent seas are, however, already influenced by contaminants arising both from sources within the region and from sources outside transported by air- and ocean currents and rivers, mostly from the heavily industrialised areas at lower latitudes in Central Europe and Russia. Yablokov et al. (1993) documented extensive dumping of liquid and solid radioactive waste in the Kara Sea environment. In addition to numerous containers and vessels loaded with solid waste, 11 nuclear reactors without fuel and 6 reactors with spent fuel have been dumped in the shallow waters of the fjords of Novaya Zemlya and in the Novaya Zemlya Trough. Based on 3 expeditions (1992-1994) to the Kara Sea and to 3 fjords on the east coast of Novaya Zemlya, the joint Russian-Norwegian Expert Group has demonstrated that leakage from the wastes takes place. The contamination is localised to the close vicinity of dumped objects, while no sign of dumped radioactive waste can be observed in the open Kara Sea (JRNEG, Salbu et al., 1996). However, increased leakage is expected as corrosion of the containment material proceeds. In the Russian part of the Barents Region, the world's highest concentration of nuclear reactors is found. The unsatisfactory storage of high-level radioactive waste, decommissioned nuclear reactors, poorly maintained nuclear reactors onboard military and civil vessels along the Kola coast and in Severodvinsk, as well as the 4 Kola reactors, pose a great risk for future leakage, as well as accidents. In the marine sediments south of Novaya Zemlya, at the testing site for underwater and underground nuclear weapons, high levels of a range of artificial radioactive isotopes have been observed (Smith et al 1995). From the underground testing field at the central parts of Novaya Zemlya no data is available. Further, in The White Sea, Russian authorities have admitted dumping of unknown quantities of chemical weapons. Studies thus far have found moderate levels of most pollutants in the White Sea sediments (Akvaplan-niva report 1995). In the Frans Josef Land sediments, high levels of HCH have been reported (Akvaplan-niva report 1996), the source remains unknown. The transport of contaminants from lower latitudes to Norwegian Arctic waters may take place with ocean currents, rivers, with ice or through the atmosphere. It has been shown that some contaminants, such as Pu-239/240, to a very small degree are transported from their original deposition, while other contaminants may be transported quite effectively through the oceanic or atmospheric circulation. The atmospheric transport time from Europe to the Arctic for organochloride compounds are shown to be days or weeks, while it takes years by oceanic circulation. Therefore, oceanic circulation contributes only the very persistent contaminants whereas atmospheric input can contribute both persistent and short lived contaminants. The major source contributing to radioactivity in the Barents Sea is fallout from nuclear weapons tests, marine and riverine transport of discharges from nuclear installations and fallout from Chernobyl. The Sellafield reprocessing plant in the UK on the Irish Sea and the La Hague reprocessing plant in France on the English Channel, are the major sources contributing to the transport of artificially-produced radionuclides to the North Sea, along the Norwegian coast to the Barents Sea. Maximum releases from Sellafield occurred during 1974-1978, and have been significantly reduced during the last 10 years. The transit time from Sellafield to the Barents Sea is about 3-4 years, and 5-6 years to the Kara Sea. The radioactivity level in sea water is at its highest in the Irish Sea and decreases northwards. For many contaminants, such as most persistent organic pollutants, neither sources within the Barents region nor transport with the Siberian rivers can explain their occurrence and abundance in this remote area. Long range atmospheric transport from source areas in the south is generally thought to be responsible (e.g. Oehme, 1991). The presence of most of the contaminants in terrestrial and fresh water systems, as well as the generally rather even spatial contamination patterns, indicate the importance of the atmospheric pathway. Studies of the average atmospheric circulation have shown that the European Arctic is particularly accessible for polluted air masses from mid-latitudes, especially in late winter. This is caused by the climatologically-persistent Siberian high pressure region, which favours strong transport from Europe into the Barents region (Barrie, 1986). This is also evidenced by the frequent occurrence of Arctic haze during this time period. Relatively volatile persistent organic contaminants can be transported to high latitudes in the vapour phase (Ottar, 1981). As a result of the temperature dependence of this cycling between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface, the net direction of this type of transport is from warm to cold areas (Mackay and Wania, 1995). The efficiency and velocity of this transfer is dependent on physical-chemical properties. Low volatility persistent organic contaminants such as the high molecular weight PAHs tend to be associated with atmospheric particles, which are deposited irreversibly. They can reach the Arctic only during weather situations favouring northward meridional air mass movement, and are thus preferably transferred during Arctic haze periods. It has been postulated that global dispersion of persistent polychlorinated compounds occurs mainly via the atmosphere and according to their vapour pressure (Ottar 1981). As a consequence only the more volatile components will reach cold areas such as the Arctic. Models and other studies have shown that long range atmospheric transport probably is the most important transfer route into the Arctic of POPs (Oehme, 1991; Mackay and Wanja, 1995). The degree of contamination in the Arctic region became known in the West after the Russian Federation was founded. In many Russian industrial or military cities, heavy contamination has been documented (State of The Environment of the Russian Federation, Yearbook 1993). As a source for radioactive contamination, the Mayak complex situated on the river Techa, a tributary of the river Ob, has been given much attention. Evaluation of potential risks connected to Mayak´s installations (including a reprocessing plant), has been one of the main tasks for the Joint Russian-Norwegian Expert Group on Radioactive pollution. All the data collected have not been assessed, but severe radioactive contamination has been shown (Christensen et al 1995). In addition, two nuclear installations with reprocessing facilities are situated in the catchments of the rivers Ob and Yenisey. These installations represent a large potential for accidental releases of radionuclides to the Kara Sea. In addition to radioactive contamination, releases to water and atmosphere of a range of other pollutants including persistent organic pollutants have been documented, as well (State of the Environment... op cit). Several studies, some of them Norwegian, have been conducted in the Kara Sea and in the estuaries of Ob and Yenisey. Although not all the samples have been analysed yet, the results indicate that the heavy radioactive contamination at the upper parts of Ob river has not reached the Kara Sea yet, while the levels of Cs-134/137 in the Yenisey estuary are elevated. In the Yenisey estuary high levels of certain POP's such as dioxin were found, as well. Considerable quantities of particulate material are transported to coastal Arctic seas by melt water from large Russian river systems in the late summer and early autumn. Such particles transported to the Kara and Pechora Seas may be heavily contaminated with pollutants derived from the industrial areas of the Urals and the counties of Komi, Nenets and Archangelsk. It is thought that such material is deposited initially into coastal sediments, but may be re-entrained into sea ice during the following winter and subsequently be transported offshore by ice drift. As a result of all these processes coastal ice fields may carry enormous loads of sedimentary particulates (Nansen, 1897). The link between dirty ice and anthropogenic pollution is more than their common occurrence in the coastal regions. The estuaries represent a non-equilibrium mixing zone, where contaminants transported by river waters (ions, complexes) may polymerize on contact with sea water and be removed from the water phase by sedimentation. Furthermore, contaminants associated with fresh water sediments (particles, colloids) may mobilize in contact with the high-salinity sea water. The distribution coefficient Kd is much higher for most contaminants in river water than in sea water. Therefore, information on fluxes of contaminants, especially during episodic events (particle-associated contaminants, colloids), transformation processes in the mixing zone, and the physical-chemical forms of biological relevance is essential to assess consequences in the marine ecosystem of riverine transport. The contamination entering the Kara and Eastern Barents Sea may reach Norwegian waters, either through atmospheric transport or through a combination of rivers, ocean circulation and the polar ice drift. This means that global pollutants like organochlorines, radionuclides and heavy metals will be transported into the highly productive and fish-rich Norwegian waters in the Barents Sea. An accidental release of radionuclides in the Kara Sea may be a direct threat to Norwegian fish, seal and whale resources. Most concern should, however, be devoted to lipid-soluble contaminants such as organochlorines, which have detrimental long-term effects on top predators (polar bear, seals, whales, sea-birds), including man. The importance of lipids (fish-, seal-, and whale oil) in the Barents Sea food chain has been described by Falk-Petersen et al. (1990). They have shown that the transfer of lipids from spring bloom via copepods and krill to caplin, cod, birds and marine mammals can take place within six months of a year. This means that lipid-soluble contaminants efficiently can be transferred from the primary producer to important commercial stocks of capelin, cod and whales. The transport of contaminants into the productive areas of the Barents Sea and the incorporation of contaminants into the food chain are therefore of direct concern to Norway. Figure Figure 1: Transfer of lipids from the spring bloom via herbivorous zooplankton to top predators By the knowledge we have today it is not possible to give a quantitative description of the transport of contaminants. The dominant processes of importance to the transport is far from understood, and the importance and role of the various transport media and quantities of contaminants transported are not known. These gaps in knowledge must be filled to be able to fully assess threats from pollution sources and carry out reliable environmental impact assessments. Environmental status and impact assessments are necessary as a basis for management decisions on actions to counteract damage to the environment. Potential actions for the northern seas will be very costly and will necessarily demand international collaboration since most of the contaminants are long range transported. This implies stringent requirements for comprehensive and thorough documentation, which most likely will increase in the future, as a basis for proposed actions. It is important to give confidence to the policy makers that the knowledge basis is accurate and reliable. A quantitative description of the contaminant pathways is essential to establish a satisfactory knowledge basis for decision makers. This gap in knowledge is pointed at in both national management reports and in international programmes. In the reports to the Storting "Om norsk polarforskning" and "Om miljøvern på Svalbard" this gap is described as a problem for the environmental management (St.meld.nr.42 1992-93, St.meld.nr.22, 1994-95). In relation with the planned national long term contaminant monitoring programme of the northern seas it was early noted that there where significant gaps in knowledge on contaminant pathways. In a report to the Ministry of Environment it was proposed to fill central gaps in knowledge as a first phase of a long-term monitoring programme (SFT, NP, NRPA, 1995). Improved knowledge on pathways is necessary both to design more effective monitoring programmes and to fully assess collected data. In the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) the need for a quantitative description of the contaminant pathways have been underlined at several occasions and latest in the AMAP report to Ministers in 1996 (AMAP Report 96:1). It is said there that a detailed understanding of the transport processes will be required in order to fully interpret and assess the monitoring information being generated as a part of AMAP. The report also states that this research should specifically focus on processes on shallow Arctic shelves and in the estuaries of the major Arctic rivers. The AMAP working group urge the Ministers to be aware of this research need and asks for their assistance in notifying national research institutions to fill this gap. In the report from the Ministerial meeting, the Ministers also acknowledged that this information is necessary, e.g. to conduct risk and impact assessments (Report of the Third Ministerial Conference on the Protection of the Arctic Environment, March 1996, Inuvik, Canada). The need for this information is also expressed in the Norwegian-Russian Environmental co-operation, e.g. in the Joint Expert Group on Radioactive Contamination of the Northern Areas: "The knowledge on transport and dispersal of radioactive contaminants in the seas should be improved to be able to quantify the transport of radioactive contaminants for use in environmental impact assessments and environmental status assessments. This work should include sediment transport and freshwater runoff, hereto mixing zone processes, ocean currents and transport between seas, and drift of ice" (Protocol from Expert meeting, Oslo, May 29-June 3. 1995). This information need is also pointed out in the draft report on the environmental status of the Barents Sea and the White Sea (Lønne et al., in prep.), a report prepared by the Joint Expert Group on the Marine Environment. This programme aims to address some of the identified gaps in knowledge and will focus on the physical and chemical mechanisms responsible for the transport and/or accumulation of imported contaminants in the marine physical system. The influence of such contaminants upon the marine ecosystem system will be addressed in another programme "Impacts of and transport of contaminants in marine foodchains in northern seas". The Ministry of the Environment (MD) gave the appointed working group the following mandate: The working group shall develop further the project "Quantitative description of the currents in the Barents and Kara seas in order to estimate the pathways and the fluxes of radionuclides and other environmental contaminants (EKASC)". The project is already initiated with financial support from the Ministry of the Environment. Further development of the programme shall include the sediment transport and freshwater flow, including mixing zone processes and identification and quantification of the transportation of environmental contaminants in the sea, including the ice. In addition, the programme shall incorporate the input (deposition) of contaminants from the atmosphere caused by long range transport to the northern regions. Co-operation with the relevant Russian institutions is also included in the intent of the proposed programme. The working group may also invite other national scientific groups to participate in the work. The programme should contain proposals for a work schedule and budget. It is presupposed that the areas of research which are operative or planned within the scope of the programme will be defined so as to avoid duplication of work and to ensure that the projects are relevant in relation to the needs of the environmental authorities.' The results of this programme, together with the results of the programme "Impacts of and transport of contaminants in marine foodchains in northern seas" ("Effekter og transport av miljøgifter i marine næringskjeder i nordlige havområder") and the results presented in the coming AMAP-report should give a sufficient basis for designing contaminant monitoring programmes in the northern seas. The transport programme is planned to be finalized within 3-4 years. However, the experience and knowledge gained during the conduct of the programme should give guidance and input to the design of a monitoring programme and to necessary impact assessments at an earlier stage. Main objectives The overall objective of this programme is to: provide the Norwegian authorities with reliable knowledge on oceanic contaminant pathways of significans for the Barents Sea, and on sources and processes affecting the contaminant transport in the Barents- and Kara seas. The Pechora Sea is included in the programme as being part of the Barents Sea. The programme will address the physical and chemical basis of knowledge for doing the assessments listed in the preface (purpose of the programme). The programme will include atmospheric fallout (deposition) as loadings to the marine environment. The programme will focus on selected contaminants, including radionuclides, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals. The criteria for selecting these specific contaminants is mainly based on the substances' general properties, potential release and on their potential environmental impact. Specific objectives The overall objective can be broken down in the following specific objectives. The programme will: 1. improve the quantitative description and understanding of regional oceanographic transport and sedimentation processes in the Kara- and Barents seas; 2. identify the importance of sea ice, ocean currents and sediment transport processes and their role in the transport of contaminants in the Kara - and Barents seas; 3. identify air/sea/ice interaction processes of importance to the transport of contaminants; 4. improve the understanding of sediments as a sink for transported contaminants and contaminated sediments as a diffuse source; 5. improve the understanding of mixing/transition zone processes and their influence on the transfer of contaminants especially through estuaries; 6. by including the knowledge gained through the above objectives, improve models for quantification of temporal and spatial distribution of contaminants following: a) continuous release; b) acute release; 7. give guidance/input on the design of a long term monitoring programme. Based on the objectives above the following main tasks have been identified: Phase I
Phase II
International and national co-operation This work will be co-ordinated with the bilateral Russian- Norwegian Environmental Commission, and especially with the Joint Expert Group on Radiactive Contamination of the Northern Areas and the Joint Expert group on the Marine Environment, as well AMAP. Contact will be made with all relevant projects in Norway (e.g. Ecotoxicology of the Polar Environmental Centre), in USA (e.g. Texas A&M University, ), the European Union (Nuclear Fission Safety Programme) and elsewhere to take advantage of all relevant research. Close co-operation with Russian Institutes should be maintained through all phases of the programme. Potential sources of contaminants were discussed in Chapter 1.4. and it was shown that contaminant threats to the Barents Region and adjacent seas may arise from sources within the region or the contaminants may be transported into the region from outside. Regardless of their origin, contaminants trapped in the ice or dissolved in sea water in the Kara and the Pechora Seas may be transported into Norwegian waters around Svalbard and the fish-rich area of the Barents Sea (FIG. VIZE). The eventual fate of these contaminants is the major issue to be addressed by this proposal. Figure Vize 1937 Figure 2: Drift path of buoys cast adrift in the northern Kara Sea, 1930 - 1934. Modified after Vize 1937 2.1. Physical oceanographic processes Physical oceanographic processes influence the environment of the Kara and Barents Seas in a number of ways: * the transport of fresh water * the transport of heat * the transport of dissolved contaminants * the transport of sediment and sorbed contaminants * convection processes in flaw leads leading to frazil ice formation and sediment in ice The different transport processes have different time scales. Shelf waters have a residence time on the shelves at about 3 years (Hanzlick and Aagaard, 1980; Schlosser et al., 1994; Schlosser et al., 1995). According to Schlosser et al. (1995) the different transport routes of contaminants in the Arctic has the following time scales: Multi- year sea ice, 3 years; surface waters, 5 years; halocline waters, 10 years and deeper water masses from 10's of years to 100's of years. The sea ice, shelf waters and surface waters of the Arctic Ocean are probably the water masses among those mentioned above that are most likely to influence Norwegian areas. They are also the water masses that will transport pollution on the shortest time scales. Thus, the oceanographic part of this program dealing with transport of dissolved pollution should focus on the shelf waters of the Kara and Barents seas and the surface waters in the Arctic Ocean likely to intrude into the Barents Sea. Besides direct transport of dissolved pollutants, the different processes in the ocean are also important for incorporating contaminated sediments into the sea ice. These are mainly processes like storms and tides which provide turbulent energy important for resuspension of sediments in the shallow coastal zone. The ocean is also important for sea ice processes such as ice drift, break-up of fast ice and sea-ice melting due to heat transported by the ocean currents. The Kara Sea receives more than one-third of the total freshwater discharged into the Arctic Ocean (Gorshkov, 1983; Hanzlick and Aagaard, 1980). Dissolved pollution from the rivers will follow the freshwater which will occupy the surface waters of the shelf and contribute to the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean. There are large seasonal variations of the river runoff. More than 80% of this discharge occurs during the period from June to September (Pavlov and Pfirman, 1995). The peak discharge occurs in June-July and may be as high as 120(103 m3/s for Yenisei alone (Pavlov and Pfirman, 1995). The Kara Sea is also influenced by freshwater from the Pechora river which enters through the Kara Gate (Hanzlick and Aagaard, 1980, Pfirman et al., 1995). The huge river runoff from the Ob and Yenisei flows on to a very shallow continental shelf with depth from 10 to 50 meters. A significant part of the freshwater from Ob and Yenisei moves eastward along the coast towards Vilkitsky straight between Severnaja Zemlya and the mainland (Zenkevish, 1963; Schlosser et al., 1995). Some freshwater enters the Laptev Sea through the strait while some moves offshore west of Severnaya Zemlya (Pavlov and Pfirman, 1995). Most of this freshwater will ultimately contribute to the surface layer of the Arctic Ocean. Wind has a significant influence on the spreading of freshwater. Pavlov et al. (1994) observe different spreading patterns of the freshwater from the Ob and Yenisei estuaries. The different patterns are produced by the varying wind fields and annual variation in the river discharge (Pavlov et al., 1994). Eddy formation by frontal instabilities might also be an important process influencing the spreading of freshwater (Johnson et al., 1996). Freshwater from Ob and Yenisei are observed near the northern tip of Novaya Zemlya (Pavlov et al., 1994) and from there wind might force it into the Barents Sea. Along the east coast of Novaya Zemlya nuclear material are dumped at depths ranging from 12 to 135 meters in the fjords and in the deep trough (Yablokov et al., 1993). Because of its greater depth and semi-enclosed nature the Novaya Zemlya trough may accumulate water with salinities as high as 35 psu (Pavlov and Pfirman, 1995). The water in the trough is renewed by dense water production by cooling and ice formation along the shores of Novaya Zemlya (Pavlov and Pfirman, 1995). Oxygen values in the trough are only about 10 to 15 % less than those observed in the adjacent shelf waters. Water masses from the Novaya Zemlya trough are dense and are thus likely to flow down the St. Anna trough into the halocline or deeper part of the Arctic Ocean. Besides storms, tides may be important in producing turbulence in the water column. The tides in the Kara Sea have a predominantly semidiurnal character (Pavlov and Pfirman, 1995; Nøst, 1996). Maximum velocities of the tidal currents are 20-30 cm/s in the open Kara Sea. Maximum velocities increase in bays and gulfs along the southern coast where they may be as high as 60 to 80 cm/s (Pavlov and Pfirman, 1995). Tidal amplitudes are generally within 30 to 80 cm. The largest oscillations in sea level are due to storm surges which in bays and gulfs of the southern coast may reach an amplitude of 3 to 3.5 meters (Pavlov and Pfirman, 1995). A good overall description of tides in the Eastern Barents Region is provided by the modelling effort of Kowalik and Proshutinsky (1994). Detailed descriptions of the tidal regime in the Barents Sea are provided by the numerical investigations of Gjevik et al. (1994) and Kowalik and Proshutinsky (1995). A summary of circulation and volume fluxes in the Arctic Seas has been compiled for the AMAP report. The first draft by Falck (1995) shows that the fluxes between the various seas (e.g., Barents-Kara, Barents-White) are substantial. This draft states that the variability of water mass transport through the various troughs, straits and channels produce considerable uncertainty in estimates of volume fluxes into and out of the Nordic Seas. Since the goal of the AMAP report is to describe pathways for pollutants in the Arctic, it is clear that considerably more effort will be required to produce a description of the regional Eastern Barents Region circulation suitable for contaminant transport studies. The final AMAP report is expected in early 1997. Objectives The main objectives of the ocean transport component of the program are as follows: * To improve our understanding of the physical oceanographic processes responsible for spreading of freshwater from the rivers discharging into the Pechora and Kara Seas. * To improve our understanding of the physical oceanographic processes responsible for spreading of water from the fjords along the shoreline of eastern Novaya Zemlya. * To improve our understanding of the processes responsible for exchange of water masses between the Kara and the Barents Seas. * To describe the physical oceanographic processes responsible for resuspension of sediments on the shallow Siberian coastal zone in the Kara Sea. * To understand how these processes influence the transport of contaminants. The production and transport of sea ice plays a major role in determining the environment of the Kara Sea through: * the flux of fresh water * the flux of sediments * the flux of pollutants A review of current knowledge of the ice regime in the Kara Sea is provided by Pavlov et al. (1994). Ice formation in the Kara begins in September in the northern portion and in October in the southern reaches. From October to May the entire Kara Sea is covered with ice of various types and stages of development. On average, the ice-covered area of the Kara is estimated to be 830,000 sq. km. in mid-winter. The coastal zone (depths of 20 m or less) is occupied by fast ice. In the summer, this shore-fast zone breaks up into floes. Ice hummocking is observed in up to 20 percent of the area in winter. Seaward of the shorefast zone is a region of open water or young ice. In this flaw leads formation of new ice results in the bonding of sediment particles to frazil ice and incorporation of sediment into the ice cover. Due to the tidal induced vertical mixing, high concentration of bottom material may be brought up underneath the ice and be embedded during freezing. Newly formed ridges, with numerous voids may then act as effective sediment traps. Drifting ice is spread throughout the central area of the Kara Sea in winter. This ice is predominantly first year and of local origin. Pavlov et al. (1995) note that outflow of ice northwards from the Kara predominates. From multi-year observations, the time of ice export from the Kara Sea to Fram Strait is 2-2.5 years. Recent calculations by Colony (1996, pers. comm.) indicate that only 10 percent of ice produced within the Kara coastal zone within a given year will be exported to the Central Arctic Basin, the rest melts in the central Kara in the following summer between the 100 to 200 m isobaths. Thus, based on this calculation, sediment frozen in ice in the Kara coastal zone has only a 10 percent probability of escaping the Kara before it is released into the water column during the melt season. Figure Figure 3: Backward trajectory analysis of sea ice for the origin of smectite samples (from Colony and Pfirman, http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/). Pavlov et al. also note that there is a considerable exchange of sea ice with the Barents Sea through the Kara Gate. From long-term data, the ice import to the Kara Sea from the Barents through Kara Gate in the winter months is 98000 sq, km. The export of ice from the Kara to the Barents through Kara Gate during the same period is 21000 sq. km. The volume of drifting ice within the Kara Sea is, on average, 4.6 cubic km per year. The ice export through Vil'kitsky Strait into the Laptev Sea is estimated to be 50 cubic km per year. The volume of drifting ice between Novaya Zemlya and Franz Josef Land is on average 198 cubic km per year. The total volume of ice exported from the Kara Sea to the Arctic Basin is estimated to be 170 cubic km per year (see Zacharov, 1976, Vinje, 1988; Pavlov and Pfirman ,1995). Sediments and contaminants entrained into or deposited on sea ice will be subject to a variety of physical processes which could have consequences for their composition, association and distribution within the ice prior to their eventual release during ice melt. Growing sea ice rejects salt from the ice matrix in the form of dense brine, which drains into the surface waters beneath. This causes vertical convection, which enhances exchange between the surface and the ocean compartments (Lake and Lewis, 1970) and allows redistribution of particulate material through the growing ice-flows. Turbid ice, an important first-year ice, contains evenly disseminated sediment, but continuous ablation, melting and re-freezing processes and the development of ice biota throughout the life of a flow will result in further differential redistribution and may lead to release, chemical change, resorbtion and/or concentration of associated contaminants during the evolution of multiyear ice. Little is known about such processes and it is necessary to assess their relative importance and to study their consequences for the eventual fate of ice-rafted contaminants in order to evaluate the eventual impact of such contaminants on the environment in ice melt areas. Objectives The objectives of this component of the study are to: * determine the role of sea ice in the long range transport of pollutants, * determine the fate of ice produced in the Kara coastal zone, * to determine the fate of sediments and contaminants originating in estuarine and coastal areas of the eastern Barents and Kara Seas, including identification of sink areas of the riverine and estuarine originated sediments. 2.3. Atmospheric sources and flux of contaminants between phases. Atmospheric sources Contaminants can enter the marine system from the atmosphere. There are several pathways of atmospheric deposition, the importance of which are dependent on the contaminant's physical-chemical properties and a large variety of environmental conditions such as temperature, aerosol concentration, precipitation rate, wind conditions, and presence and concentration of sorbing material in the water column. The main processes are: * diffusive contaminant vapour exchange * dry particle deposition of aerosol associated contaminants * precipitation scavenging of contaminant vapours and particle-associated contaminants. The conditions for atmospheric contaminant deposition in the Arctic seas are quite peculiar, because: 1. temporal and permanent ice coverage significantly modifies the extent and nature of air-water exchange, 2. atmospheric particle concentrations and precipitation rates are generally very low, 3. much of the precipitation occurs in the form of snow, 4. atmospheric stratification is often very strong and vertical air movement is limited. Findings of atmosphere-ocean exchange in temperate latitudes may thus be of rather limited relevance in polar seas. For many persistent organic contaminants such as the PCBs and PAHs atmospheric deposition is believed to be the biggest source to many temperate waters such as the Great Lakes or the Baltic Sea, even though they lie in highly industrialised areas. It is therefore very likely that the atmosphere contributes a large share of the contaminant burden in the Northern Seas. Furthermore, atmospheric deposition is not just important as a direct pathway of contaminants from the atmosphere to the ocean but may also substantially contribute to the contaminant input via rivers and sea ice. Much of what the rivers may import into the Siberian shelf seas, may not be derived from industrial and agricultural sources along the rivers itself, but from atmospheric deposition into the vast drainage basins of these rivers. Similarly, the contaminant load in sea-ice may be as much a result of continued atmospheric deposition to the ice as of sediment entrainment. Vertical transport and flux of contaminants between phases and compartments: In the transport model to be used, both horizontal and vertical transport of contaminants need to be incorporated. For the horizontal (or inter-regional) transport of water ice and sediment particles abiotic variables including ice cover, climate and oceanographic data are sufficient. Organic contaminants occur in the environment in various forms (e.g. dissolved in the water vs. attached to solids suspended in the water) and compartments (air, water, sediment, etc.). The contaminants do not necessarily remain in the same compartment during its transport from region to region or thoughout the year. Contaminants interact with and may be transferred between the atmosphere, the water column (dissolved in water, sorbed to biota, organic or inorganic particles) and sediments, all according to variations in the physical and biological environment in space and time. Large salinity changes in the estuary outlets, changes in ice cover and temperature, and biological production are known to effect the mobility and phase of contaminants present/passing through in these regions. Also, melting, freezing and ageing processes change the vertical distribution of sediments in the ice and will therefor have an effect on both the melting process and the timing of its release from the ice. In the modelling approach, phase and compartment distribution and changes need to be taken into account, as the contaminants undergo different fate processes depending on their occurrence. Vertical processes such as transfer to the sediments with settling organic matter or volatilisation may be as, or oven more decisive from the overall fate of the contaminants in the marine system as the transport with water, sediments and ice. It will therefore be necessary for to identify for each of the contaminants considered in this study, which type of transport is the most important, which transport model is most suited and which input parameters are required to run this model. Objectives The objectives of this component in the study are to: * describe the sources of contaminants in the study region * identify which types of transport are the most important for the contaminants considered in the study * identity the models best suitable for modelling transport of each contaminant and which input parameters are required 2.4. Existing Data on contaminant levels and loadings There are, with the exception of artificial radionuclides, very few reliable measurements of other ocean borne contaminants measured in the water column (Gaul 1989). This accounts for the Atlantic and Barents Sea water as well as Russian water. On the other hand, much more date on contaminant levels in sediment are available. Some papers and reports have been published, and more will be published in the coming year (Russian-Norwegian Environmental Commission, The Status Report for the Barents and White Seas, and through AMAP). There is a need to systemize the existing data, and especially to harmonise Western and Russian data. For instance have The Russians over many years sampled ice and snow in Siberia and on the Polar Ice, and these data are mostly lacking in west. Until the past 3-4 years, almost no information existed on the pollution situation in the Kara Sea. Although the Russians have been studying this area for years, the information available is still sparse. The Russians were traditionally not studying the contamination in detail (except radiation), and there have been different methods used which make it difficult to compare Russian and Western results. The data needed to elucidate both loadings and the fate of contaminants in the Kara Sea, to a great extent exist, either in Russian files or in Western files. However, the existing information must be analysed, evaluated and systematised. The sources for information on the fate of sediments in the Kara Sea and their degree of being pollution infested may be put into four categories: 1) Russian sources. These are mainly the monitoring carried out by the hydrometeorological service of RoshHydromet. After the breakdown of this system in the beginning of the 90's, several institutes developing from RoshHydromet have later continued these studies. Information on radioactive pollution has been published during the conferences in Kirkenes 1993 and in Oslo 1995. There is also a close co-operation between Norway and Russia in these studies. On other pollutants (POPs and metals), the Russian data have been less accessible and, in addition, several methodical problems must be resolved. Included in the recent Russian papers are: Vlasov & Melnikov (1993); Grurikov (1994); Melnikov et al. (1994) and Pobregov (1994). As a total, only a fraction of the Russian data has been published. It must be emphasised that through the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, very interesting information has been made available for the AMAP database (mostly from Regional Centre for Monitoring of the Arctic in St. Petersburg-RCMA). 2) Norwegian-Russian studies. Under the auspices of the Russian-Norwegian Environmental Commission, the Expert Group on Radioactivity, three cruises were carried out to study the dumping sites of radioactive material in the Western Part of the Kara-Sea (1992-94). Akvaplan-niva and Murmansk Marine Biological Institute carried out a base line study in the southern Kara Sea and the estuaries of Ob and Yenisey in 1993. In 1994, under an Agreement between Norwegian Polar Institute and Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Akvaplan-niva and RCM continued the base-line studies of the Eastern Kara Sea (Karex-94 / 95). This information is, in part, reported to the Ministry of Environment, it must be noted, however, that not all the analyses have yet been carried out. In 1995, a pilot study of chemical analyses were carried out between a leading laboratory in St. Petersburg and Norwegian laboratories. The experiences gained from this intercalibration exercise can be used in order to study the methods and estimate the quality of other data from this laboratory, as well. 3) American and American-Russian studies. Apart from the restricted military intelligence information collected from the 1960's on, several US institutes have been working in the Kara Sea the recent 3-4 years. This information has only partly been available, but through AMAP an agreement has been signed which will make all data older than two years available for AMAP. 4) Through the SPASSIBA studies of Siberian rivers, several institutes in France and Holland have worked in the rivers and estuaries of Ob and Yenisey. Their data are partly published (Mai and Martin, 1994) Objectives The main objectives for the contaminant transport component of the programme are as follows: * to identify which datasets are needed/useful for validation of models/description of transport pathways * to establish an updated status on contaminant levels in the Barents seas and the Kara Sea (incl. levels in marine sediments, particles in water, infested ice and snow) from available data brought forward by AMAP and others. This includes establishing an agreement with AMAP on use of their databases. * produce a simplified estimate of contaminant loadings/input (rates) from rivers, from sources in the ocean and from the atmosphere (excluding transport processes to the ocean). * to quantify the rates of transfer of sediments (and, in particular, its carbon and contaminant components) Data Inventories The following data inventories will be used in the study: Oceanographic data: * AARI - (SEVER-winter, Ice Patrol-summer) T,S, hydrochemistry * US Navy expeditions of mid 1960s * Norwegian sources (IMR / FFI / UiB / NP) * Ecoshelf (1959-1992) * World Ocean Data Centre * German sources (AWI) * Swedish sources ( ?) Meteorological data (surface and upper air): * World data centres Snow and precipitation: * ACSYS data base at Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, Offenback Arctic River Discharge: * ACSYS data base at Global Runoff Data Centre, Koblenz Ice chart(digitized): * AARI ice charts * US National Ice Centre ice charts * DNMI and NP Passive microwave: * Goddard Space Flight Centre (CD ROMs) * Landsat TM (NP) * AVHRR * INSROP database Contaminants: * Data base set up as part of ONR radionuclide study - Kathy Crane, manager. (Robert Edson is manager of the ONR project) * SSV / Taiphun * IMR (radionuclides, POPs,trace metals) * Texas AM (M.Champ) - sediment and biota * Ohio Univ. (S. Forman) - sediments * Canada-Russia program (radionuclides etc.) * Akvaplan-niva / NP ( AMAP parameters + radionuclides) * Spassiba (French-Dutch) * RCMA (Melnikov) * VNI Gelogica This programme is to extend over a four-year period and is defined in two phases. Phase 1 will be conducted in the first year of the programme. Phase 2 will be conducted over the remaining 3 years of the programme. The goals of Phase 1 of the programme are to: describe the present situation based on the synthesis and analysis of existing data produce data sets suitable for model initialisation, forcing and validation implement and conduct preliminary testing of model tools. This task consists of coordinatation of the project activities and control/following up of the individual projects of the programme and to ensure that the objectives are met. The main purpose is ensure that: the projects are focused according to established objectives and progress kept according to programme plans and that continuous contact is kept between project supervisors so that relevant information is exchanged. Implementation of organisation A management organisation must be established in co-operation with the Ministry of Environment. The following elements is proposed:
Programme board Programme secretariat - Programme Manager - Programme co-ordinator Scientific Advisory Group Project Supervisor Project Supervisor Project Supervisor Project Supervisor The Programme board The board will be the responsible body of the programme. Mandate: assess the progress, results and budget reports of the various projects and decide on necessary adjustments of the programme according to the main objectives and work plan based on advice from the secretariat. Programme Secretariat Located at NP and composed of Programme manager and Programme co-ordinator. Programme co-ordinator will be contracted. Mandate: assess the progress, results and budget reports of the various projects and give advice to the board on necessary adjustments of the programme according to the main objectives and advice from the scientific advisory group. The secretariat will also be responsible for describing the work content in phase II of the programme based on phase I. The Secretariat report to the Programme board. Mandate of the Programme co-ordinator is to: * ensure initiation of the various projects and keep control of budgets (contracts, etc.) * ensure progress of the projects and that the focusing is according to programme objectives or adjusted according to decisions made by the Programme secretariat through regularly contact with project supervisors (project supervisors give status reports to the programme co-ordinator). * report on the status of the projects to the Programme Secretariat. * act as the secretary of the Programme Secretariat. Scientific advisory group Representatives from programme participants and from international Inst./-programmes. The mandate: give advice to the Programme Secretariat on adjustments in priorities in the work plan of the programme based on their scientific knowledge and contact with project supervisors Scientific work shops Meetings between project supervisors and the representatives from the other programme bodies. Exchange of information, discussions, etc. Once a year. Task 2: Select Key Contaminants This task consists of the identification of key contaminants to be included in process studies and modelling. This task will select the most important contaminants which will be included in models in order to study how they are transported and spread in the ocean. The selected contaminants will also be the key contaminants in process studies as sedimentation, ice transport (including freezing and melting), etc.. The key contaminants will include persistent organic pollutants (POPs), trace metals and radionuclides. The contaminants should be chosen in co-operation with the group working on the programme "Impacts of and transport of contaminants in the marine food web in the northern seas". The list of contaminants should also reflect the AMAP list of key variables. This task will be carried out by Norwegian institutes. The list of contaminants will be prepared in a one day meeting and be finalised after circulation among relevant experts. The product from this task will be a short report giving the criteria for selection and the list of key contaminants. Task 3: Synthesis and Analysis of Existing Data Within this task available oceanographic data, sea ice data, meteorological data, sediment data, and data on contaminant levels and loadings in the Barents and Kara Seas are identified. A subset of the data identified will be collected and analysed. Work plan The most relevant tasks of the EKASC project will be finished. Further data will be identified. After identification, datasets that obviously will be needed early in Phase II will be collected and analysed. The task is subdivided into 7 subtasks described below. Task 3.1 EKASC Validation and Documentation EKASC ("Quantitative description of the currents in the Barents and Kara seas in order to estimate the pathways and the fluxes of radionuclides and other environmental contaminants/Kvantitativ beskrivelse av strømforhold i Barentshavet og i Karahavet for beregning av transportveier og transportmengder av radionuklider og miljøgifter" is a project described in the programme proposal to the Ministry of Environment: "Program for miljøkartlegging i Karahavet, Pechorahavet og Barentshavet 1995". The project started in 1995 and continues in 1996. Not all activities in phase I of EKASC are funded. The ongoing activities will produce a climatological description of hydrography, sea level and currents. To finish the project in a way that is useful for the rest of the program, the climatology must be validated and documented, i.e. activities 4 and 6 in EKASC must be funded. Other non-funded activities in the EKASC description will be integrated elsewhere in the program. Validatation and documention of the EKASC climatology corresponds to activity 4 in the EKASC project. The results in the climatological archive will be plotted, as horizontal maps and vertical sections. These figures will be compared qualitatively with available literature and reviewed by experienced oceanographers at IMR and NP. The modelled transport estimates through selected sections will be compared with independent estimates. Russian scientists from AARI and PINRO will be invited to participate in this task. Documentation of EKASC data sources and analysis methods corresponds to activity 6 in the EKASC proposal. A report will be written describing the data sources and the methods used to produce the climatology. The EKASC climatology validation will also be documented. 3.2.1 Additional hydrographic and current measurement data sets In addition to the data collected in the EKASC project, (data from IMR and NP, and gridded information from AARI) further data on hydrography and currents will be identified. Among the new data sources are the World Ocean Data Centre and Russian institutes beside AARI (e.g. PINRO, Murmansk). If available, data from military research vessels will be incorporated in the inventory. As this kind of oceanographic information certainly will be useful in Phase 2 of the programme, all freely available data sets will be collected. The data sets will be run through a rough quality control and duplicates will be identified. A report will be prepared consisting of an inventory of available data sets and an evaluation of the collected data sets. 3.2.2 AVHRR sea surface temperature AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) thermal infrared satellite imagery in digital (when available) and photographic (otherwise) form will be collected for cloud-free or nearly cloud-free periods for the open water seasons in the eastern Barents and Kara Seas from 1984-1995. The data will be analysed and corrected, then placed in an archive suitable for validation of sea-surface temperature estimates produced from the ocean circulation models in the programme. 3.2.3 Tidal atlases/cotidal charts Digital co-tidal charts for Barents and Kara Seas on 5 km grid for M2, S2, N2, K1 and O1 constituents are to be produced based on validated Arctic tidal model results from Norwegian, Russian and US sources. Sea ice data from a variety of sources are to be collected, digitized (if necessary) and combined to form a monthly mean time series of sea ice distribution (concentration) in the eastern Barents and Kara Seas from 1981 to 1995. This data set forms the basis for a sea ice climatology for the region. Model validation data sets are to be produced from the period 1993-1994. 3.3.1 Russian ice charts AARI ice charts 1981-1995 are to be digitized on 20 km grid for Kara Sea. The geographical distribution and interannual variation of fast ice are to be described. A database describing fast-ice distribution is to be created. 3.3.2 Norwegian/US ice charts DNMI ice charts 1981-1995 are to be digitized on a 20 km grid for Barents Sea. US National Ice Centre ice charts are to be digitized on a 20 km grid for Arctic/Barents/Kara in order to supplement other sources. 3.3.3 SSM/I Ice concentration fields are to be extracted from SSM/I archived data sets. SSMI data sets are to be analysed in order to identify regions of ice formation and melting. Estimates of heat flux and ice drift are to be obtained from meteorological data sets. 3.3.4 Ice distribution from AVHRR and SAR Kinematic ice velocities in eastern Barents and Kara are to be computed for intervals when time sequences are available during the period 1993-1994. Digital and photographic archives of AVHRR ice images from 1984-1995 are to be assembled. SAR images for coastal polynya/shore-fast zones in the Kara are to be assembled for validation of frazil ice and shore-fast ice models. 3.3.5 Data set synthesis Data sets are to be combined to form monthly-mean time series of regional sea ice distribution for the Kara and eastern Barents region for the period 1981-1995. Data sets are to be combined to produce synoptic model validation data sets from the period 1993-1994 This includes activity 7 in the EKASC proposal. A new global archive produced at the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) contains fields for wind, air pressure and heat exchange for the period 1979 to 1995. This archive will be transferred to DNMI and monthly means produced. As an extension to the EKASC proposal, the archive will be validated for the Barents and Kara area by Norwegian and Russian meteorological data. Task 3.5 Contaminants and sediment data When the AMAP report is finished, we will have an improved overview of existing data on all contaminants in the actual area. 3.5.1 Bottom sediments and sedimentation rates Available data on sediment composition at bottom and sedimentation rates will be identified, e.g., the PRO MARE programme and the AMAP report. 3.5.2 Sediment in ice Analysis of minerology and contaminant levels in sediment in ice from existing ice cores from the Kara Sea will be carried out. 3.5.3 Data on radionuclides This task consists of compilation and synthesis of data on concentration of radionuclides in the northern seas. This task will be accomplished through co-operation with Russian research institutes and organisations. The focus will be to use the AMAP data base of the thematic datacentre: Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, NRPA to obtain relevant data for the overall tasks. 3.5.4 Data on heavy metals and POP´s Available data on heavy metals and organic contaminants will be identified with emphasis on the contaminants selected in Task 2. The focus will be to use the AMAP data base of the thematic datacentre: ICES to obtain relevant data for the overall tasks. Task 4: Description of scenarios Within this task significant sources of contaminants to the Kara and Barents Seas will be identified (incl. potential acute sources and chronic discharges/emissions-/atmospheric fallout). Release scenarios will be described as a basis for estimation of levels of and distribution of contaminants in the Barents and Kara Seas. The scenarios will be described based mainly on the present available information and expert evaluation of contaminant source terms and transport properties of contaminants. Additional/improved knowledge will be limited by cost and time considerations. 4.1.1 Identification of significant sources for present and potential radioactive contamination. Available inventories on present chronic release of radionuclides and inventories on potential sources are to be evaluated in order to identify the significant sources; such as global fallout on the Siberian area, Mayak, Tomsk-7 and Krasnoyarsk-26 facilities, dumping of radioactive waste in the Kara Sea, nuclear power vessels and the nuclear power plant on the Kola peninsula, nuclear storage sites, and the Sellafield facilities. 4.1.2 Description of potential scenarios of radioactive contamination. Realistic pollution threat scenarios will be described, based on the most probable release and transport pathways scenarios. However a complete source term characterisation is not realistically achievable. Therefore, a more general approach will be used. Task 4.2 Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) 4.2.1 Identification of significant sources This task will be accomplished through collecting data from available inventories on discharges/emissions of POPs in/to the Kara and Barents Seas (atmospheric fallout, onshore and offshore point sources, riverine input); co-operation with other organisations; and modelling of the transport and concentration levels of POPs. The inventories are expected to be referenced in the coming AMAP report. 4.3.1 Identification of significant sources. This task will be accomplished through collecting information from available inventories on discharges/emissions of heavy metals in/to the Kara and Barents Seas (atmospheric fallout, onshore and offshore point sources, riverine input). The inventories are expected to be referenced in the coming AMAP report. In addition, the evaluations will be based on model calculations. Task 5: Identification and Evaluation of Model Tools In this task, mathematical/numerical models that potentially may be used for estimation of transport and dispersion of contaminants in polar areas are identified and evaluated for their potential use in the programme. It should be noted that a suite of models will be employed in the programme, as opposed to attempting to produce a single all-encompassing comprehensive model of the system. There are many models that potentially may be used for the purpose at hand. The task is therefore to identify models and/or model modules that look promising, to elucidate their limitations (i.e., in terms of processes included) and their strengths. It is expected that this task will result in a report describing the various models recommended for use in the programme. (Report from an AMAP seminar sponsored by the Transport programme is available in PDF-format, and can be downloaded here.) Task 5.1 Ocean circulation and transport models Models will be identified and assessed for their capability to represent the following processes:
Models will be identified and assessed for suitability for representing:
Models will be identified and assessed for the following processes:
Within this task, gaps in knowledge of the transport processes, contaminant levels and loadings that must be addressed in order to improve the understanding of transport of contaminants and the predictive capability of models are identified. The results will determine the priorities for necessary field work, model improvements, and/or retrieval of other existing data. A complete description of this task will require completion of Tasks 2-5. However, from the literature review of Section 2 and the associated studies, it is clear that process modelling, laboratory and field studies will have to be developed to address processes such as:
Task 7: Process and Model Studies This task consists of process and modelling studies of processes identified in Task 6. Task 7.1 Coastal ocean dynamics It is anticipated that process-oriented numerical modelling studies will be conducted to address:
(Some of these topics are addressed in the project "Transport of river water and sea ice on the Kara Sea continental shelf", conducted at the Norwegian Polar Institute and funded by the Research Council of Norway.) Task 7.2 Regional circulation in the Kara-Barents region Simulations of the regional circulation in the Barents and Kara Seas and validation with available data will be conducted in this task. Contaminant transport and dispersal simulations will be carried out. Process-oriented model studies of sediment suspension/deposition and transport as well as sediment incorporation into sea ice will be conducted. It is anticipated that models of the chemical behaviour of the selected contaminants, the sorbing of contaminants in sediments and the behaviour of the contaminants in sea ice will be developed and implemented. It is anticipated that process-oriented studies of shore -fast ice dynamics and thermodynamics and the formation of frazil ice in coastal polynyas will be conducted. Task 8: Laboratory and Field Experiments This study consists of laboratory and field studies identified in Task 6. It is anticipated that, at least, the following laboratory studies will be conducted:
The following could be candidates for field experiments:
Task 9: Final Reporting and Programme Evaluation This task consist of the following: 1. Organise an international conference (target group: experts and officials) and present the results of the programme and assessments on how they can be used in future monitoring and assessment programmes; 2. Summarise the results of the projects as presentations to the conference; 3. A final report will be produced which will summarise the results of the programme and provide recommendations for future monitoring and assessment programmes.
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